Research
Research
Embedded Files
Work in Progress
Work in Progress
Real Effects of Corporate Income Tax Increases: Evidence from Portugal, With Jaime Leyva
Working Papers
Working Papers
Abstract: We study the VAT incidence in the housing market, exploiting a 2016 reform in Chile that introduced a 19% tax on sales by developers while exempting resales by individual homeowners. Using rich administrative data covering nearly the universe of residential transactions, we estimate a difference-in-differences design that leverages the differential tax treatment across seller types. Apartment prices per square meter rose by approximately 11.8% within three years, with consumers bearing 75% of the effective tax rate. This increase combines two margins: an 8.5% rise in nominal prices and a 3.2% decline in unit sizes, a form of housing shrinkflation visible in construction permits before any price response. Despite the large tax, transaction volumes did not decline. Purchase contracts surged by 33% before implementation and fell by a comparable amount immediately after, indicating pure re-timing rather than a permanent demand response. The tax raised revenue without reducing market activity, but at the cost of higher prices and smaller apartments for buyers.
Abstract: Labor markets in large metropolitan areas are segmented. The literature has referred to these micro-markets as ``Local Labor Markets" and has typically used location and industry, or occupation, to delineate them. This is problematic for two reasons: 1) delineations rely on arbitrary administrative boundaries for regions, industries, and occupations, and 2) this implicitly assumes that the structure of the larger market does not change. In this paper, we use the metro expansion in Santiago de Chile to show that transport infrastructure can change what constitutes a local labor market and thus have knock-on effects on labor market power and aggregate outcomes. We build a simple theoretical framework that delivers testable predictions to guide our analysis. We find empirical evidence that after a relevant reduction of commuting costs, workers from previously small markets have higher probabilities of changing local labor market and enjoy higher wages. Lastly, we find that in labor markets affected by the reduction of commuting costs, mean markdowns fall around 10 percentage points.
Publications
Publications
Rural-Urban Migration at High Urbanization Levels, with Matias Busso and Juan Pablo Chauvin. Regional Science and Urban Economics, 2021, vol. 91: 103713.
Pre-Doctoral Work
Pre-Doctoral Work
Human Capital Accumulation and Conditional Cash Transfers in Presence of Armed Conflict
Abstract: Armed conflict is one of the main barriers to development. Although there is a growing literature focusing on the effect of violent conflicts on human capital accumulation, there is less empirical evidence on whether or not social policies could help to mitigate the impact of violence on human capital. By addressing this issue using a sizeable conditional cash transfer in Latin America, I find that after three years of the implementation of the program, children living in high-conflict recipient municipalities have, on average, fewer years of education and lower enrollment rates. On top of that, only children in low-conflict zones benefit from the program. Displacement as a strategy for coping with the risk of violence by households receiving the program in conflict zones could be the reason why subsidy recipients have lower educational attainment.
The younger age profile of COVID-19 deaths in developing countries
With Annabelle Fowler and Juan Pablo Chauvin
Abstract: This paper examines why, during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic, a larger share of COVID-19 deaths occurred among young and middle-aged adults in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) than in high-income countries (HICs). Using novel data at the country, city, and patient levels, we obtain three main results. First, we show that the COVID-19 mortality age gap is not explained by younger susceptible populations in LMICs. Second, we provide indirect evidence that higher infection rates play a role, showing that variables linked to faster COVID-19 spread are correlated with younger mortality age profiles. Third, lower recovery rates in LMICs explain nearly all of the higher mortality among young adults and almost half of the higher mortality among middle-aged adults. Our evidence points to a higher prevalence of preexisting conditions associated with severe COVID-19, and lower access to hospitals and intensive care units in some countries as likely explanations.
Page updated
Google Sites
Report abuse